Divine Gongs

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Andrew Gonzalez, founder of prediction market infrastructure startup ParlayX, believes the ability of small teams to provide liquidity is one of the sector’s defining features. “Anyone can be a market maker,” he said. “You have these two- or three-man shops.”

Jefferies described market makers as the ecosystem’s “liquidity backbone”. They post executable bids and offers, manage inventory and provide prices when customer activity is heavily weighted to one side.

The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.

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Atucha warns that regulations are often perceived as operator-friendly at the start before governments begin looking to squeeze licensed sectors, likening the process to “boiling a frog”. He has observed similar scenarios in other LatAm markets, with tax increases occurring in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico in the last couple of years.

Rossi believes the ISC in Peru is an example of a government implementing new taxes without truly understanding how the industry works, and the potential impacts on channelisation to licensed offerings.

“Peru has been quite successful in channelling customers into the regulated framework,” Rossi comments. “The risk is that this channelisation can decrease in favour of the black market. We know the black market won’t have any consumption tax.

About Divine Gongs

But the court said that point did not affect the validity of the by-law, adding that it saw no evidence of a tax that would choke businesses. 

The judges highlighted the number of gaming halls in the city remained largely stable after the increase. 

The court also dismissed the equal-treatment argument, noting that gaming machines are taxed by the municipality while casino taxation falls to Hesse.