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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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Another point of contention was content marketing and influencer promotions. The Lords committee advised treating this as advertising and, if a full ban were not immediately feasible, prioritising its prohibition.

Sponsorships and advertising with sports teams was also flagged as according to the report, voluntary efforts had failed to reduce the industry’s exposure. 

With int he report Dr Matt Gaskell MBE observed that “overall exposure (including shirts, hoardings, logos, sponsorship and related marketing) during live sports programmes does not show that self-regulation has reduced exposure meaningfully”. 

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At least 60 “yes” votes were needed to move the legislation towards passage, but the final tally of 49-50 didn’t even reach a majority after four Republican lawmakers broke ranks to oppose the market structure bill. With critical midterm elections approaching in November, there is little chance that the issue will be picked back up in the balance of the Congressional session.

Notably, ethics concerns may have played a critical factor in the rejection of the bill. Lawmakers from both sides did not feel that an updated version of the text released on Sunday went far enough in addressing concerns related to senior officials maintaining or endorsing crypto business ties. However, a group of Republicans claimed they made a series of concessions when US President Donald Trump agreed to modifications on Sunday night that contained stronger ethics measures, the Associated Press reported. The 11th hour concessions were not enough to appease potential swing voters among Senate Democrats.

“This legislation failed squarely because Republicans refuse to say no to the president,” Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego said in a statement. “It takes 60 votes to pass a bill, and instead of spending their time twisting themselves into knots to appease President Trump, Republicans should have worked more closely with Senate Democrats to craft a bill that could pass with strong ethics provisions.”