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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
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However, it also found that formal governance of AI was struggling to keep pace with its growing usage. Only a minority of organizations surveyed reported having a formal AI strategy or roadmap. Many said one remained in development.
The MGA also found that only a small number of respondents had fully established AI risk assessment processes or incident-response plans.
Speaking at the launch event, MGA CEO Charles Mizzi emphasized that the framework is meant to foster progress rather than stifle it.
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“I always found it funny when Colombia was starting, operators were saying ‘players here do not like slots’, as if they have a different DNA. Five years later, they would say, ‘well, they do like slots, but simple slots’. And five years later, they were playing all the usual [slots]. It’s not that they didn’t like slots.
“If someone takes the time to understand what they’re used to playing, what they like, what their history is and take that into consideration, then you can bridge that gap. If operators take that time to understand where players are at, it does make a difference.”
Local operators, meanwhile, have tried to close the gap by strengthening their technology, including working with world-class suppliers.